Lumina’s 2026 survey highlights a resilient Middle East M&A market, with deals slowing rather than stalling. Looking forward, sentiment is cautiously optimistic, backed by opportunistic deals and deals in critical sectors, but expect longer, more complex deals as acquirers rebalance risk. Key takeaways
Deals slowed, not stopped; 66% saw transactions paused or delayed this year but only 20% had a deal abandoned.
Processes are getting more complex; 4 in 5 respondents flagged challenges with off-market deals, and expected delays to deals rose from 41% to 65%.
Regain remains in focus; 69% plan to maintain or grow their regional footprint, only 4% are considering an exit. The UAE (72%) was the top target market.
Risk is being priced in; 77% adjusted price or structure, through higher discount rates, longer earn-outs and stronger deal protections.
Valuations are softening; Deals at 10x+ EBITDA fell from 34% to 17%, with multiples settling at 6–8x.
Critical sectors see momentum; Energy and infrastructure was the most active sector (31%, up from 16%), and healthcare, logistics and technology show the strongest intent for the next 12 months.
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